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Predictions are that Manitoba will experience warmer and wetter winters along with longer, warmer and drier summers. Precipitation is likely to vary more from year to year. Extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, floods and intense storms are projected to increase in frequency.
Sea-ice will likely change in extent, thickness and predictability disrupting fish species.
The coastal zone along Hudson Bay is moderately sensitive to physical changes such as flooding, erosion, beach migration, and coastal dune destabilization as a result of sea level rise. However, these effects would be lessened as the earth’s crust continues to rebound from ancient glaciers in that region.
The health of polar bear populations is already declining due to earlier ice break-up onHudson Bay. Because they have a shorter period on the ice, the bears have less opportunity to hunt their primary food source, seals, before their annual fast onshore.
While seals may experience reduced predation, they will also be affected by habitat degradation or loss as a result of melting sea ice.
Arctic cod eat phytoplankton. Reductions in the extent of sea ice could harm this food source, leaving the cod population without enough food. Phytoplankton also provides nutrition to narwhal and beluga whales. On the other hand, decreased ice cover could enhance primary production in open water and as a result, food supply might actually increase.
Melting sea ice will open up marine shipping channels through the Arctic which would negatively impact marine ecosystems through increased noise and pollution.
While warmer temperatures, longer growing seasons, and higher CO2 concentrations could result in enhanced forest growth, these benefits could be offset by increases in the frequency and intensity of forest fires, insect outbreaks and extreme weather events.
Forest ecosystems will be affected as warmer temperatures are expected to gradually push the forest’s ideal habitat northward. There are concerns that some species would be unable to keep up with the rate of climate change. Some limiting factors include soil conditions, methods of seed dispersal and habitat fragmentation.
Adapted from the Government of Manitoba STEM Site